Where is the science behind the claim that vaccines save millions of lives?
Many science and media publication make the claim that “vaccines save lives” or millions of lives are saved every year because of vaccines, but where is the source data to justify such estimations? For the past 3 years, when ever I come across such a claim I’ve search to see if the author cited the source of their claim, but they don’t.
When starting to read Dr Aseem Malhotra‘s September 2022 paper “Curing the pandemic of misinformation on COVID-19 mRNA vaccines through real evidence-based medicine”, I couldn’t get past the first paragraph. In his opening statement, just like many vaccine papers, he made the bold claim that collectively traditional vaccines save 4-5 million lives every year, but for the first time, in seeing such a statement, the source was cited, the World Health Organisation (WHO). Finally I had a way of tracking down the science behind the claim, or so I thought.
Collectively, traditional vaccines are estimated to save approximately 4–5 million lives per year.
Malhotra paper
Now armed with the WHO Fact’s in Pictures on Immunization page link (URL) I went to check it out and was shocked (not really shocked) to find just a statement of alleged fact, with no citation, no “evidence” for how they determined 4-5 million deaths are prevented each year from immunization. This page is dated December 5, 2019, which is curious, and more curious.
The “Facts in Pictures” page for immunization does not cite the source of their 4-5 million current lives saved claim, it seems we just have to believe what the WHO writes as “fact”. What about the image with the little girls, what is with their fingers, is that a vaccination mark, and is that a vaccination card they are holding? I guess that is the “fact” in that picture a mark of being jabbed! (The same finger image is found in THIS 2017 report).
Suddenly (2021) from 2-3 million to 4-5 million lives saved
The Immunization page URL is first archived in May 2018 where there was just “an additional 1.5 million deaths could be avoided” claim. It wasn’t until July 18, 2018 the page suddenly made the claim that “Immunization currently prevents 2-3 million deaths every year.” This is about half of what Dr Malhotra quoted in the current page, (which I have archived April 7, 2024 as proof), that is preventing 4-5 million deaths every year. The web page is dated “December 5, 2019”.
Looking at the archived pages, the closest to Dec 5th is December 20, 2019, which on that page version it strangely still mentions “2-3 million”, in fact it is not until April 27, 2021 before the 4-5 million is suddenly changed over night, yet they didn’t adjust the date, it still states “December 5, 2019”, not April 27, 2021. Is this just an oversight? I wonder, but it sure looks suspicious. No matter what, there still is no citation for the claim, or justification for why such a dramatic increase.
Side Note: Clicking on the “Credits” in the bottom of the WHO website image reveals “UN Foundation/Stuart Ramson“, so I typed that into DuckDuckGo and it seems Stuart Ramson is the photographer for the United Nations Foundation (UNF). So I look up UNF and find it is a non-profit, NGO that the web archives date back to 1999 with the first post marking the world reaching 6 Billion population! Curious.
The UNF was started in September 18, 1997 with a $1 Billion gift from R. E. Turner Vice Chairman, Time Warner Inc.. Their mission to help the UN Agenda for the 21st Century (Agenda 21) where children are key, and “$20 million a year – to benefit the neediest children” is allocated by UNF.
This is an example of the tangents and historical rabbit holes I get taken down when researching, trying to piece together the money and influence trail that has crafted the “vaccines are our saviour” narrative.
Searching for the source of the WHO’s “vaccines save millions of lives” claim
This page contains the link I’ve found digging through the WHO archives (and affiliated sites) trying to find a source for their estimated “vaccines save millions of lives” claim. All I find is statements and one citation to a Gates foundation funded paper.
At the time of writing (April 7, 2024) it appears the “millions of lives saved” due to vaccines claim is more turtles all the way down. just a marketing statement by an “authority head”, if they did have the date, they would cite it!
Links in reverse chronological order
Content will be added as I find reference to “lives saved” narrative.
2023
July 18, 2023 – WHO: Immunization coverage facts – READ, ARCHIVES
- Introducing a new term “zero-dose children” that being children missing out on any vaccination (i.e. unvaccinated)
- Zero dose children: 19.5 million infants (2016), 12.9 million (2019), 18.1 million ( 2021) to 14.3 million (2022)
- “While immunization is one of the most successful public health interventions, coverage plateaued in the decade prior to COVID-19. The COVID-19 pandemic, associated disruptions, and vaccination efforts strained health systems in 2020 and 2021, resulting in dramatic setbacks”
- zero dose children coverage: 19.5 million infants (2016), 12.9 million (2019), 18.1 million ( 2021) to 14.3 million ( 2022)
2021
June 24, 2021 – Daily Sceptic: “The Vaccines Kill Two People for Every Three Lives They Save”, Says Peer-Reviewed Vaccine Study – READ
April 27, 2021 – WHO Facts in Pictures: Immunization (web page still dated Dec 5, 2019) – ARCHIVE, READ, April 7, 2024 still Dec 5, 2019 – ARCHIVE, the closest archive to Dec 5, 2019 is Dec 20, 2019.
- “Immunization currently prevents 4-5 million deaths every year”
- “Immunization prevents deaths every year in all age groups from diseases like diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis (whooping cough), influenza and measles. It is one of the most successful and cost-effective public health interventions. An additional 1.5 million deaths could be avoided, however, if global vaccination coverage improves.”
- https://web.archive.org/web/20210427171733/https://www.who.int/news-room/facts-in-pictures/detail/immunization – LINK, (for some reason the archive won’t bring up the date, so I place the URL for you to see the date denoting 2021/04/27)
- On April 26, 2021 – “fact” states 2-3 million, the day before 4-5 million – ARCHIVE
- What was happening around April 27, 2021 that could prompt the need for such a bold public health claim? (who really knows!) – TIMELINE
- April 6, 2021 – Biden: 150 Millionth COVID-19 shot: get vaccinated “can save your life and the lives of others” – READ, ARCHIVE
- April 19, 2021 – Biden started the $1billion public “education campaign” on get vaccinated – TIMELINE
- April 20, 2021 – WHO calls mRNA/LNP a “vaccine platform technology” no longer a product, as the pandemic have provided remarkable proof of concept – TIMELINE
- April 23, 2021 – CDC recommend COVID-19 vaccine for pregnant women – TIMELINE
- April 28, 2021 – Biden’s 100th day: “We’re vaccinating the nation… After I promised we’d get 100 million COVID-19 vaccine shots into people’s arms in 100 days, we will have provided over 220 million COVID shots in those 100 days”…There’s no wall high enough to keep any virus out. And our own vaccine supply — as it grows to meet our needs; and we’re meeting them — will become an arsenal of vaccines for other countries, just as America was the arsenal of democracy for the world” – ARCHIVE (I’d hate to be the translator to make sense of his word salad!!)
- April 30, 2021 – CDC breakthrough infections now public, although they knew this since early 2021 – TIMELINE
2020
December 20, 2020 – WHO Facts in Pictures: Immunization (web page still dated Dec 5, 2019)- ARCHIVE
- Immunization currently prevents 2-3 million deaths every year
2019
December 20, 2019 (archive date, closest archive to Dec 5, 2019) – WHO Facts in Pictures: Immunization – the web page is dated December 5, 2019 – ARCHIVE, previous ARCHIVE is Oct 18, 2019, dated July 18, 2019.
- Immunization currently prevents 2-3 million deaths every year
July 18, 2019 – WHO Facts in Pictures: Immunization – ARCHIVE (with no citation)
- Immunization currently prevents 2-3 million deaths every year…An additional 1.5 million deaths could be avoided, however if global immunization coverage improves.
January 9, 2019 – TED Talk: How vaccines train the immune system in ways no one expected | Christine Stabell Benn – WATCH
- “The use of DTP vaccine may kill more children than it saves” – EXCERPT
2018
March 22, 2018 – WHO Facts in Pictures: Immunization – ARCHIVE (with no citation)
- An additional 1.5 million deaths could be avoided, however, if global vaccination coverage improves.” No mention of the base number
February 28, 2018 – WHO Facts in Pictures: State of global health – READ, ARCHIVE Some claims by WHO
- In 2015, more than 16,000 children under age five died every day (5.84 million/year)
- 45% of deaths among children under age five occur during the first four weeks of life – they then refer to neonates.
- In 2015, an estimated 2.6 million babies were stillborn
- 1.3 million deaths in 2015 were attributable to hepatitis
- Global average life expectancy increased by 5 years between 2000 and 2015, the fastest increase since the 1960s to 71.4 years
February 8, 2018 – WHO: Immunization coverage – ARCHIVE, January 2018 – ARCHIVE
- “Immunization averts an estimated 2 to 3 million deaths every year from diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis (whooping cough), and measles; however, an additional 1.5 million deaths could be avoided if global vaccination coverage improves.”
- Global vaccination coverage has stalled at 86%, with no significant changes during the past year
- “The main goal of the 2017 campaign with the theme #VaccinesWork is to raise awareness about the critical importance of full immunization throughout life, and its role in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.” – REF
2017
2017 – WHO: National Immunization Coverage Scorecards estimates for 2017 – PDF, ARCHIVE
- WHO-UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage (WUENIC) for 1998 to 2017 – REF, ARCHIVES, 2017 – ARCHIVE
- This report led to WHO Global Health Observatory (GHO) data with vaccination coverage, unvaccinated and mortality by “vaccine preventable diseases”- 2015 – ARCHIVE
- Septemer 6, 2017 Data, statistics and graphics – ARHVIE
2012
May 2012 – WHO 65th World Health Assembly – SAGE Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) 2011-2020 (resolution WHA65.17) framework was endorsed, to help realize the vision of the Decade of Vaccines launched by Bill Gates in 2010 – REF, GVAP- ARCHIVE, READ, UNICEF – READ
- GVAP is “a framework to prevent millions of deaths from vaccine-preventable diseases by 2020″
2011
January 2011 – WHO: Immunization – ARCHIVE
- “Immunization is the process whereby a person is made immune or resistant to an infectious disease, typically by the administration of a vaccine. Vaccines stimulate the body’s own immune system to protect the person against subsequent infection or disease.”
- Immunization is a proven tool for controlling and eliminating life-threatening infectious diseases and is estimated to avert over between 2 and 3 million deaths each year….[immunization] has clearly defined target groups; it can be delivered effectively through outreach activities; and vaccination does not require any major lifestyle change”
2010
January 29, 2010 – Bill and Melinda Gates Pledge $10 Billion in Call for Decade of Vaccines – ARCHIVE, GAVI celebrates 10 years – ARCHIVE, WHO – ARCHIVE
- “Despite these achievements…2.4 million children continue to die each year from vaccine-preventable diseases.” – GAVI – REF
- BMGF: 2010 Annual Letter from Bill Gates: The Miracle of Vaccines – ARCHIVE
- “Vaccines are a miracle because with three doses, mostly given in the first two years of life, you can prevent deadly diseases for an entire lifetime.” says Bill Gates, who is Rich
- “se the impact is so incredible, vaccines are the foundation’s biggest area of investment—more than $800 million every year—and the return is substantial.”
- “Each year, more than 100 million children are immunized against tuberculosis, polio, measles, and other diseases. But millions of other children, mostly in the world’s poorest countries, are not immunized.” – REF
2008
October 2008 – Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation : Vaccine-Preventable Diseases – ARCHIVE
- “Every year, 2.4 million children die from preventable diseases despite the availability of effective vaccines.”
- “Our goal is to increase the use of effective but underused vaccines and introduce new vaccines to prevent a total of 4 million deaths per year.”
- Public and private groups from around the world have come together in an effort to eventually immunize all children.
- Funding for Vaccine-Preventable Diseases – “We do not fund grants to individuals” – “We’re supporting efforts to protect children and help raise global immunization rates to 90 percent,” – REF
2008 – WHO: The Burden Vaccine-preventable diseases – In 2008, WHO estimated that 1.5 million of deaths among children under 5 years were due to diseases that could have been prevented by routine vaccination – ARCHIVE – (The graph as a refrence, though hard to read) – Web page has list of vax-preventable diseases.
- June 5, 2010 – The Lancet: Black RE et al – Global, regional, and national causes of child mortality in 2008: a systematic analysis – READ (for the Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group of WHO and UNICEF, funded by WHO, UNICEF, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation)
- “Of the estimated 8·795 million deaths in children younger than 5 years worldwide in 2008, infectious diseases caused 68% (5·970 million) with the largest percentages due to pneumonia…”
- The remaining 9 million are “estimated” by the WHO Department of Immunization, Vaccines and Biologics (WHO IVB). No citation for that portion of the data is provided.
2008 – WHO : Global Health Observatory (GHO): 2-3 million deaths averted annually from diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis (whooping cough), and measles by vaccination – ARCHIVE –
The mortality figures in all quote 2008 yet reports are 2009, 2012 and 2014!
- 2014 Global Immunization coverage report – mortality 1.5 million for 2008 – ARCHIVE
- 2015-16 the stopped updating the mortality number – ARCHIVE
2007
April 18, 2007 – CDC: How Vaccines Prevent Disease – ARCHIVE, Vaccine basics – ARCHIVE
- “Vaccines prevent disease in the people who receive them and protect those who come into contact with unvaccinated individuals. Vaccines help prevent infectious diseases and save lives….Vaccine-preventable diseases have a costly impact, resulting in doctor’s visits, hospitalizations, and premature deaths. Sick children can also cause parents to lose time from work.” [so how do they work? what does “protect” mean?]
January 26, 2007 – BMGF: Immunization Rates Hit Record Highs in Poor Countries – GAVI Immunization Programs in 2006 Prevented 600,000 Future Deaths, New Data Show – ARCHIVE, GAVI press release – ARCHIVE
- “New data from the World Health Organization (WHO) show that the GAVI Alliance, a groundbreaking global initiative to increase access to children’s vaccines, has brought immunization rates to record highs in poor countries.”
2006
February 15, 2006 – WHO: Immunization against diseases of public health importance – ARCHIVE
- “Vaccines – which protect against disease by inducing immunity – are widely and routinely administered around the world based on the common-sense principle that it is better to keep people from falling ill than to treat them once they are ill. Suffering, disability, and death are avoided”
- “Immunization averted about two million deaths in 2002″
- “Immunization is a proven tool for controlling and even eradicating disease.” – smallpox! – REF
2002
November 2, 2002 – WHO: Low investment in immunization and vaccines threatens Global Health – Immunization saves 3 million lives every year, but three million more could be saved – READ , ARCHIVE, 75% worlds children are reached with “essential vaccines” at US$1.56 billion a year
- Immunization saves 3 million lives every year, but three million more could be saved
- Measles “causes about 700 000 deaths a year – (157,700 in 2011 – ARCHIVE)
- Hepatitis B causes 520,000 deaths a year worldwide
- Haemophilus influenzae type B kills 450,000 children in developing countries (meningitis and pneumonia – 1998 Position paper on Hib B vaccine REF)
- “…”We need to act fast and effectively to ensure that children and adults everywhere have access to life-saving vaccines. From a global perspective, this is the only way of avoiding major epidemics of new and old diseases.” says Dr Gro Harlem Brundtland, Director-General of WHO
2002 – WHO : The burden of Vaccine-preventable diseases – In 2002, WHO estimated that 1.4 million of deaths among children under 5 years were due to diseases that could have been prevented by routine vaccination – ARCHIVE, ARCHIVE
- According to the WHO data 10.46 million children under 5 died from vaccine preventable disease in 2002, with a total of ~57 million deaths of all ages.
- The table was updated for 2008 data in 2013 – ARCHIVE
1998
January 10, 1998 – WHO Press Release: Vaccines can save up to 12 MILLION LIVES YEARLY – many new vacccines could be depolyed soon – ARCHIVE (4 million)
- Up to four million lives can be saved by the full deployment of existing but under-used vaccines, with costs from pennies to a few dollars per dose.
- “The development of new vaccines for diseases such as rotavirus diarrhoea and pneumococcal pneumonia in infants and the widespread deployment of under-used vaccines for diseases like measles can save up to 12 million lives a year, mostly from infections in childhood says the new Strategic Plan of the Children’s Vaccine Initiative (CVI).” Managing Opportunity and Change: AVision of Vaccination for the 21st Century
- Dr Suzanne Humphries on CVI Strategic Plan – WATCH
- “The Children’s Vaccine Initiative is co-sponsored by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the World Health Organization (WHO), the World Bank and the Rockefeller Foundation.”
- “Vaccination is our most powerful weapon in the war against infectious diseases,” says J.W. Lee, M.D., Executive Secretary of the CVI.
1995
1995 – UN Foundation: Children’s Health: Challenges for the 21st Century – ARCHIVE, link to UN/WHO
- In 1974 only 5% of children in developing countries were immunized against polio, tetanus, measles, whooping cough, diphtheria and tuberculosis – (the six WHO EIP vaccines targets)
- By 1995, the immunization rate increased to 80%, saving more than 3 million children’s lives each year.
- UNICEF partners with WHO to provide the six basic vaccinations mentioned above that protect children from preventable but often deadly diseases. Without such protection, 2.7 million children would die from measles, 1.2 million would die from tetanus, and 1 million from whooping cough.” [total of 4.9 million saved!] – REF
1980
1980 – WHO declares smallpox eradicated – a new “enemy” is now needed to focus efforts
- “During the 1970’s and 1980‘s [not true, 1980 was the year smallpox declared eradicated], WHO led the successful global campaign for the eradication of smallpox. Prior to its eradication, smallpox affected up to 15 million people a year worldwide – killing 2 million annually.” …Smallpox eradication saves the world more than $1 billion/year in vaccination costs alone – and billions more in avoided medical costs.” – REF
- Following the success of the smallpox eradication campaign, WHO is leading the way to eradicate another debilitating disease, poliomyelitis” – REF
- “WHO believes that the complete eradication of polio can be realized by the year 2000. Eradication of the disease will result in annual savings of more than $1.5 billion worldwide” – REF
1913
1913 – Modern Medicine by Sir William Osler – Volume 1, Chaper 23 “Vaccination” – READ
Definition. — Vaccination is the inoculation of vaccinia, by means of the virus of cowpox, and has for its object the production of a pock, with general symptoms, followed by more or less complete immunity against smallpox.
- In 1913 Vaccination was specifically the action of rubbing cowpox (pus) [vaccinia ie “vaccine“] into cuts made by a lancet in the arm, a process called inoculation.
- “The Vaccine virus” – meant cowpox toxic substance, not as we would understand “virus” or “vaccine” today – READ
- Diphtheria and tetanus were refered to as “antitoxins”, somewhere in history they came to be called “vaccines”.
- Some where between 1913 and 1918 the term ‘vaccine’ and ‘vaccination’ was hijacked, to no longer mean solely for smallpox. This came about with the development of pneumonia and influenza “vaccines” during the 1918 Pandemic.
- To make this clearer. Historically Vaccinators use a lancet to innoculate with vaccine, Immunizer’s use a syringe “immunize” with serum. – REF
It is sometimes said that general vaccination would open the way for a series of preventive inoculations for various other infectious diseases, but this is not necessarily so. Whenever it can be shown that any other disease can be protected against as well as smallpox can be by vaccination, and with as little risk, it would obviously be well to take advantage of the discovery.
Ch 23, Pg 847, the author is planting the term “vaccination” to be appied to other diseases, yet in the opening of the chapter defines “vaccination”
