From a February 26, 2020 , “leaked’ slides from Dr. James Lawler presentation to the American Hospitals Association, revealed his model projected that 96 million Americans could become infected cases, of which 4.8 million could result in hospital admissions and 1.9 million of those “could require a stay in a hospital’s intensive care unit (ICU), and approximately half of them would need a ventilator“. The “slide says hospitals should prepare for an impact to the system that’s 10 times greater than a severe flu season.”
But in the same presentation Lawler showed clearly that the death rate in China was significantly higher in 80+ years than other age brackets and pre-existing conditions were associated with death. [3]
Also in February 2020 the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins released a February report [no archive for Feb] which estimated the United States “has about 160,000 ventilators ready for use in hospitals, with another 8,900 held in a national reserve”, enough for day-today operational capabilities but not for a severe pandemic. A shortage of skilled respiratory therapists is also noted. [2]
On March 13, 2020 the World Health Organisation released [2, 3] their updated interim guidance for “Clinical management of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) when COVID-19 disease is suspected”, which recommended “mechanical ventilators as an early intervention” based on China’s experience. [1] And thus begins the ventilator panic.