On January 16, 2020 Neil Ferguson et al at the UK Imperial College, WHO collaboration centre, released their first modelling report “Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Wuhan City, China“, followed by their Report 2 on January 22, 2020 with their updated figures. [1, 2]
- Report 1: estimated 1700 cases in Wuhan so far
- Report 2: estimated 4000 cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by January 18, 2020
On 23 January 2020 when China’s CDC director, Gao Fu was asked about the “UK universities” estimation of 2,000 people having been infected in China, he responded:
“What we’ve learned about the real situation is not in line with the model by the British scientist.”
“In order to know the exact casualty caused by a new virus, facts should be ascertained by the available numbers and it should not be based on theories.”