On February 28, 2020, only eleven days after NIAID director Dr Fauci stated the risk is miniscule from this coronavirus, Bill Gates (who invests donates heavily to global health) warns in the NEJM perspective that:
In the past week, Covid-19 has started behaving a lot like the once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about. I hope it’s not that bad, but we should assume it will be until we know otherwise.
We need to save lives now while also improving the way we respond to outbreaks in general.
Gates provides “two reasons that Covid-19 is such a threat”:
- “First, it can kill healthy adults in addition to elderly people with existing health problems”, with a current “case fatality risk around 1%” it is more severe that seasonal influenza (0.6%)
- “Second, Covid-19 is transmitted quite efficiently. The average infected person spreads the disease to two or three others — an exponential rate of increase. There is also strong evidence that it can be transmitted by people who are just mildly ill or even presymptomatic.” MERS and SARS was spread “only by symptomatic people.”
“National, state, and local governments and public health agencies can take steps over the next few weeks to slow the virus’s spread.“
As well he called upon developed countries to help less wealthy nations prepare, as they have “health systems that are too weak to support a potential outbreak.”
“The world also needs to accelerate work on treatments and vaccines for COVID-19“
It seems his 2018 plans can now justify acceleration, government investment, and an instant market for a huge return on investment.