On March 16, 2020, the Imperial College’s epidemiological modelling team led by Prof. Neil Ferguson, released their Report 9,  which gave a “modelled” prediction for UK & US’s expected death toll from SARS-CoV-2 infection with no pharma-intervention (aka vaccine) being available, predicting 40 million deaths.

Unmitigated predicted deaths in 2020:
UK: 510,000
US: 2,200,000

Based on this “Imperial Model”, isolation of “cases”, home quarantine and social distancing was recommended to mitigate the predicted losses, but Imperial stressed it did ‘not consider the wider social and economic costs of suppression, which will be high’.

Unlike Sweden who used a different model, instead partnered with their population and did not lockdown. [3, 4, 5,11]

US Health officials used this mathematical model to justify lockdowns, but a “cost-benefit calculation – a basic requirement for pretty much every public health intervention – was never made”. [8]

Forced lockdowns and quarantining the healthy has never before been done in history, it is not based on science only a predicted model and inspired by the CCP. At this time there was no current scientific support for such NPIs, and early treatment options were being revealed by frontline doctors successfully treating patients.

Nine days later, after UK lockdowns were in place, an Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta and others [8] criticized the model, Ferguson then admits he was wrong [1, 2, 6, 9], or Not!  Gupta made the assumption that the IFR was 0.1%, Ferguson assumed IFR was 0.9%! Others too have criticized the “totally unreliable” coding.

UK death predicted at 510,000 if no action taken to slow the virus, the revised prediction was reduced to 20,000 of which most in elderly who likely will die any way, a huge difference.  The stats are in line with a bad flu season!

Ferguson in May 2020, breaks his own lockdown rules and escapes home to visit his lover.  He resigned from his SAGE position shortly after.
His fellow modelers call him “The Master of Disaster” [7]

Ferguson et al have a trail of failed predictions [10]:

  • 2009: The swine flu case fatality rate was est at 0.4%, predicting 65K deaths in UK. Actual: only 457 people died in UK
  • 2005: Predicted 200 million to die from bird flu. Actual: only 282 people died worldwide b/w 2003-09
  • 2002: Predicted 50-150,000 people could died from BSE (mad cow disease). Actual: 177 deaths in UK.
  • 2001: Suggested massive culling of non-infected animals for Foot & Mouth scare, leading to 6 million animals killed. Experts claimed his model was severely flawed!